Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
